Gigabit wrote:I don't know what the future holds but what I do know is that the Tories don't deserve to be elected ever again. Their policies are not fit for the Britain of today and do nothing for social and societal progress. Those on the left have always been the underdogs. We've been trampled on, abused, made fun of, forever. But eventually, we win. Every time.
Change will come. Neoliberalism will die. And the UK will become a better society and country for it. I pray it is during my lifetime.
Si_Crewe wrote:I suspect that whoever wins the election in 2020 will be completely unelectable in 2024.
Cannydc wrote:Si_Crewe wrote:I suspect that whoever wins the election in 2020 will be completely unelectable in 2024.
A very interesting post, if a little lacking in detail...
Timing will be all. The Brexit negotiations outcome. The Commons reaction. The decisions thereafter. And finally, crucially, the economic outcome.
At which stage would Labour like to step in ? Although they publicly state otherwise, my thoughts are that they want the Tories to implode but not before the fallout of the above is obvious. If Treeza truly owns Brexit and the complete shambles of the negotiations, they really will be gone for 20 years, if not forever.
Si_Crewe wrote:Cannydc wrote:Si_Crewe wrote:I suspect that whoever wins the election in 2020 will be completely unelectable in 2024.
A very interesting post, if a little lacking in detail...
Timing will be all. The Brexit negotiations outcome. The Commons reaction. The decisions thereafter. And finally, crucially, the economic outcome.
At which stage would Labour like to step in ? Although they publicly state otherwise, my thoughts are that they want the Tories to implode but not before the fallout of the above is obvious. If Treeza truly owns Brexit and the complete shambles of the negotiations, they really will be gone for 20 years, if not forever.
Thing is, by the time Brexit comes around we'll have had a tory government for almost a decade.
If they have any brains, they'll have something "up their sleeve" to keep the electorate happy in the 2020 GE.
If that happens, we get another 4 years of the tories and they'll have 4 years to hope they can sort out any problems - or hope something else happens to distract the public.
Honestly, I don't think they're that smart though.
I think Brexit will happen, there'll be a bunch of stuff people are unhappy about and then - maybe - Labour will get in.
Trouble is, if that happens it probably means the situation is such a clusterfuck that Labour aren't going to be able to sort it out in 4 years and they'll end up looking like a shower of shit regardless of whether it's their fault or not.
If I was in charge of the Labour party, I'd seriously consider running the 2020 GE on a manifesto of "Vote for the tories. They organised all this so let them see it through and then give us a call in 2024 if you're not happy".
Cannydc wrote:Si_Crewe wrote:Cannydc wrote:Si_Crewe wrote:I suspect that whoever wins the election in 2020 will be completely unelectable in 2024.
A very interesting post, if a little lacking in detail...
Timing will be all. The Brexit negotiations outcome. The Commons reaction. The decisions thereafter. And finally, crucially, the economic outcome.
At which stage would Labour like to step in ? Although they publicly state otherwise, my thoughts are that they want the Tories to implode but not before the fallout of the above is obvious. If Treeza truly owns Brexit and the complete shambles of the negotiations, they really will be gone for 20 years, if not forever.
Thing is, by the time Brexit comes around we'll have had a tory government for almost a decade.
If they have any brains, they'll have something "up their sleeve" to keep the electorate happy in the 2020 GE.
If that happens, we get another 4 years of the tories and they'll have 4 years to hope they can sort out any problems - or hope something else happens to distract the public.
Honestly, I don't think they're that smart though.
I think Brexit will happen, there'll be a bunch of stuff people are unhappy about and then - maybe - Labour will get in.
Trouble is, if that happens it probably means the situation is such a clusterfuck that Labour aren't going to be able to sort it out in 4 years and they'll end up looking like a shower of shit regardless of whether it's their fault or not.
If I was in charge of the Labour party, I'd seriously consider running the 2020 GE on a manifesto of "Vote for the tories. They organised all this so let them see it through and then give us a call in 2024 if you're not happy".
I get the distinct impression that the last election was an 'expected win' for Treeza. With that in mind, the usual Tory giveaway was held off - and the idea is to continue austerity to build up a war chest for the next one.
This is only a theory, but it also explains why, no matter how many cock-ups and u-turns she is responsible for, she remains in power as do the Tories.
My guess is that they will hang on grimly for as long as possible, only to smash out a huge bribefest in 2024. They will call it a 'reward to the British people'.
And the British people will fall for it. Again.
Cannydc wrote:I get the distinct impression that the last election was an 'expected win' for Treeza. With that in mind, the usual Tory giveaway was held off - and the idea is to continue austerity to build up a war chest for the next one.
This is only a theory, but it also explains why, no matter how many cock-ups and u-turns she is responsible for, she remains in power as do the Tories.
My guess is that they will hang on grimly for as long as possible, only to smash out a huge bribefest in 2024. They will call it a 'reward to the British people'.
And the British people will fall for it. Again.
Si_Crewe wrote:Cannydc wrote:I get the distinct impression that the last election was an 'expected win' for Treeza. With that in mind, the usual Tory giveaway was held off - and the idea is to continue austerity to build up a war chest for the next one.
This is only a theory, but it also explains why, no matter how many cock-ups and u-turns she is responsible for, she remains in power as do the Tories.
My guess is that they will hang on grimly for as long as possible, only to smash out a huge bribefest in 2024. They will call it a 'reward to the British people'.
And the British people will fall for it. Again.
It never ceases to amaze me how people overestimate politicians.
If this was an episode of "Game of Thrones" or "The West Wing" you might expect the protagonist to have some kind of "ace up their sleeve" in order to save the day.
In reality, though, most pol's seem unable to look beyond securing enough votes to remain in their job, getting their house in London refurbished and ensuring that their expenses cheques get deposited in the bank.
Doesn't really matter if you're talking about tory MPs ensuring that defence contracts go to companies they've got shares in or Labour MPs buying up land and property that councils are selling at a knock-down price.
The vast majority of them are just greedy tossers.
I'd actually be impressed if the tories DID have some kind of "bribe" for the population come the next election.
At least that'd mean they are capable of planning something.
Honestly, I think the tories are more surprised than anybody to still be in power and I wouldn't be surprised if they're actively hoping to lose the next GE.
Trouble is, if Labour had any brains they probably shouldn't want to win it either.
Cannydc wrote:Those of us around and interested in politics in the 1980s well remember the bribes and the resulting 'boom and bust' Tory tactics come each election.
Old habits die hard.
Si_Crewe wrote:Cannydc wrote:Those of us around and interested in politics in the 1980s well remember the bribes and the resulting 'boom and bust' Tory tactics come each election.
Old habits die hard.
If they do have the means to arrange something like that I guess it puts them ahead of Labour, who could famously only manage to leave a letter saying "I'm afraid there's no money left".
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