THE GENERAL ELECTION IS ON !!

Re: THE GENERAL ELECTION IS ON !!

Postby Cactus Jack » Thu Aug 29, 2019 9:46 am

MungoBrush wrote:
Cactus Jack wrote: if you look at it nationally. The UK has increasingly become a map of electoral regions where the South East is essentially True Blue and North East Deep Red with others picking out different places in the spectrum. One thing I'm sure of is where the Tories are most vulnerable it's to the Liberal Democrats - and that's not Labour's problem it's their opportunity.


I think that its more the case that most of the UK is blue with a few densely packed in Labour seats

You make my point where you think you're countering it.

Labour is largely in its heartlands not straying much outside but not likely to lose.

The Tories are vulnerable to the SNP in Scotland - where they will certainly lose most of their 13 seats - and to the Lib Dems in the South West of England where the Lib Dems will come back strongly as the South West is so dependent on European markets and subsidies.

Meanwhile the SDLP, a strongly remain party in Northern Ireland, will challenge Sinn Fein based on the latter's policy of abstentionism and UUP will oust the DUP in border areas.

A General Election now would be as big a miscalculation for Boris as it was for Theresa May and for exactly the same reasons - a campaign will highlight and throw the Tory splits into sharp relief.
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Re: THE GENERAL ELECTION IS ON !!

Postby Cannydc » Thu Aug 29, 2019 10:50 am

Tory most marginal seats are spread well;

Southampton Itchen - 31 votes (Labour 2nd)

Richmond Park - 45 (LD)

Stirling - 92 (SNP)

St Ives - 312 (LD)

Preseli - 313 (Lab)

Pudsea - 331 (Lab)

Thurrock - 345 (Lab)

Hastings + Rye - 346 (Lab)

Chipping Barnet - 353 (Lab)

Less than 0.75% swing will lose Tory control of the government, even if the DUP still support them. In the 2017 general election, 97 of the 650 constituencies were won by a margin of 5% of the vote or less...
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Re: THE GENERAL ELECTION IS ON !!

Postby MungoBrush » Thu Aug 29, 2019 1:20 pm

Cannydc wrote:Tory most marginal seats are spread well;

Southampton Itchen - 31 votes (Labour 2nd)

Richmond Park - 45 (LD)

Stirling - 92 (SNP)

St Ives - 312 (LD)

Preseli - 313 (Lab)

Pudsea - 331 (Lab)

Thurrock - 345 (Lab)

Hastings + Rye - 346 (Lab)

Chipping Barnet - 353 (Lab)

Less than 0.75% swing will lose Tory control of the government, even if the DUP still support them. In the 2017 general election, 97 of the 650 constituencies were won by a margin of 5% of the vote or less...


I'd be more concerned about Labour marginals if I were you
Current polls show that Conservatives will win enough seats to govern in their own right.
And the next GE will be post Brexit
So Corbyn will have nothing to talk about.
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Re: THE GENERAL ELECTION IS ON !!

Postby Guest » Thu Aug 29, 2019 1:49 pm

Cannydc wrote:Tory most marginal seats are spread well;

Southampton Itchen - 31 votes (Labour 2nd)

Richmond Park - 45 (LD)

Stirling - 92 (SNP)

St Ives - 312 (LD)

Preseli - 313 (Lab)

Pudsea - 331 (Lab)

Thurrock - 345 (Lab)

Hastings + Rye - 346 (Lab)

Chipping Barnet - 353 (Lab)

Less than 0.75% swing will lose Tory control of the government, even if the DUP still support them. In the 2017 general election, 97 of the 650 constituencies were won by a margin of 5% of the vote or less...



What was Corbyn ‘best pm’ polling then? What is now? Especially now everyone knows he is an anti-Semite anti-British incompetent?
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Re: THE GENERAL ELECTION IS ON !!

Postby Cannydc » Thu Aug 29, 2019 2:32 pm

Guest wrote:
Cannydc wrote:Tory most marginal seats are spread well;

Southampton Itchen - 31 votes (Labour 2nd)

Richmond Park - 45 (LD)

Stirling - 92 (SNP)

St Ives - 312 (LD)

Preseli - 313 (Lab)

Pudsea - 331 (Lab)

Thurrock - 345 (Lab)

Hastings + Rye - 346 (Lab)

Chipping Barnet - 353 (Lab)

Less than 0.75% swing will lose Tory control of the government, even if the DUP still support them. In the 2017 general election, 97 of the 650 constituencies were won by a margin of 5% of the vote or less...



What was Corbyn ‘best pm’ polling then? What is now? Especially now everyone knows he is an anti-Semite anti-British incompetent?


:pmsl: :pmsl: :pmsl: Good to see you remembered the 'anti-Semite' garbage. I bet you get several e-mails a week to remind you... like...

Dear Viper,

As one of our few remaining supporters, just to remind you that every time you visit a forum, Facebook, newspaper comments or write to your local paper, please mention;

1. Corbyn is a Marxist**.

2. Corbyn is an anti-Semite.

3. Corbyn is a terrorist's friend.

4. Corbyn will wreck the economy.

5. Corbyn dresses like a scarecrow.

6. Corbyn wants to turn the UK into Venezuela.

***Can be changed to Commie or any other Russian based belief system.

Regards

Conservative Central Office.
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Re: THE GENERAL ELECTION IS ON !!

Postby Ray of Sunshine » Thu Aug 29, 2019 2:35 pm

Working class people who back Remain are class traitors, supporting Soros, Goldman Sachs, Morgan Stanley and all the other globalists who want to turn us into modern day serfs.
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Re: THE GENERAL ELECTION IS ON !!

Postby Cannydc » Thu Aug 29, 2019 2:57 pm

Ray of Sunshine wrote:Working class people who back Remain are class traitors, supporting Soros, Goldman Sachs, Morgan Stanley and all the other globalists who want to turn us into modern day serfs.


:pmsl: :pmsl: :pmsl: :pmsl:

As opposed to supporting the finest traditions of the working class under the guidance of Boris De Fffeffel Johnson, Jacob Greasy Mugg, Nigel Fromage, Tommy Robinson et. al. and their greatest supporters - Donald Trump and Vladimir Putin.
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Re: THE GENERAL ELECTION IS ON !!

Postby MungoBrush » Sun Sep 01, 2019 8:21 am

"POLITICAL
Latest UK general election opinion polls: Conservative lead starts hitting double figures
SEPTEMBER 1, 2019 - 9:04 AM

https://www.markpack.org.uk/155623/voti ... scorecard/
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Re: THE GENERAL ELECTION IS ON !!

Postby Cactus Jack » Sun Sep 01, 2019 8:50 am

David Cameron had a twenty point lead ahead of the 2008 election and Theresa May had an 'insurmountable' lead - she was at 44% in the polls and far from thinking a General Election a disaster the Brexiters were clamouring for an early election and a decisive victory. They made the same mistake you're making.

Much as I hate to praise him Gideon is the one who got it right. He left the SNP to defeat Labour in Scotland and focused on a strategy that divided Lib Dem support between the Tories and Labour in the South West wiping out the Lib Dems in the process - that strategy wouldn't work today because the Lib Dems would take Tory seats
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Re: THE GENERAL ELECTION IS ON !!

Postby MungoBrush » Sun Sep 01, 2019 9:58 am

Cactus Jack wrote:David Cameron had a twenty point lead ahead of the 2008 election and Theresa May had an 'insurmountable' lead - she was at 44% in the polls and far from thinking a General Election a disaster the Brexiters were clamouring for an early election and a decisive victory. They made the same mistake you're making.

Much as I hate to praise him Gideon is the one who got it right. He left the SNP to defeat Labour in Scotland and focused on a strategy that divided Lib Dem support between the Tories and Labour in the South West wiping out the Lib Dems in the process - that strategy wouldn't work today because the Lib Dems would take Tory seats


Conservatives do appear to have the momentum at the moment. And if the GE is held after Oct 31st as seems most likely, the Brexit party’s job will be complete and they will probably swing behind the Conservatives adding even more votes.
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Re: THE GENERAL ELECTION IS ON !!

Postby Stooo » Sun Sep 01, 2019 10:03 am

Ray of Sunshine wrote:Working class people who back Remain are class traitors, supporting Soros, Goldman Sachs, Morgan Stanley and all the other globalists who want to turn us into modern day serfs.


I thought that you said that they were upper middle class yesterday.
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Re: THE GENERAL ELECTION IS ON !!

Postby Guest » Sun Sep 01, 2019 10:18 am

MungoBrush wrote:
Cactus Jack wrote:David Cameron had a twenty point lead ahead of the 2008 election and Theresa May had an 'insurmountable' lead - she was at 44% in the polls and far from thinking a General Election a disaster the Brexiters were clamouring for an early election and a decisive victory. They made the same mistake you're making.

Much as I hate to praise him Gideon is the one who got it right. He left the SNP to defeat Labour in Scotland and focused on a strategy that divided Lib Dem support between the Tories and Labour in the South West wiping out the Lib Dems in the process - that strategy wouldn't work today because the Lib Dems would take Tory seats


Conservatives do appear to have the momentum at the moment. And if the GE is held after Oct 31st as seems most likely, the Brexit party’s job will be complete and they will probably swing behind the Conservatives adding even more votes.

Fool!

If a No Deal Brexit is forced through on 31st October the Rejoin movement will start on 1st November and the Conservatives will get the blame for the delays in ports, the shortages of medicines and fresh food and inflation which will be inevitable when WTO tariffs are put on goods.

Scotland will kick out every Tory, that's a thirteen seat loss, Labour heartlands will stick with Labour and when the temporary solution of setting many tariffs at zero make the UK a dumping ground for excess production and cost UK jobs, especially in food and agriculture, in very short order a lot of the shires will stay away too.

A No Deal Brexit prior to an election is not a scenario that favours Boris Johnson and he knows it.
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Re: THE GENERAL ELECTION IS ON !!

Postby Rocthedog » Sun Sep 01, 2019 11:15 am

Stooo wrote:*drags out Focus bag and polo shirt*

They'd vote for a cow wearing a blue rosette around here but LD are the only viable option to Bluekip so that's a bonus I guess.

Vote for the remain party that's most likely to win a seat in a GE :thumbsup:


I know you like a good laugh, but the above YIU are joking.
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Re: THE GENERAL ELECTION IS ON !!

Postby Rocthedog » Sun Sep 01, 2019 11:16 am

MungoBrush wrote:"POLITICAL
Latest UK general election opinion polls: Conservative lead starts hitting double figures
SEPTEMBER 1, 2019 - 9:04 AM

https://www.markpack.org.uk/155623/voti ... scorecard/



That's the labourites shitting their pants. :canny: :canny: :canny:
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Re: THE GENERAL ELECTION IS ON !!

Postby Cannydc » Sun Sep 01, 2019 11:30 am

MungoBrush wrote:
Cactus Jack wrote:David Cameron had a twenty point lead ahead of the 2008 election and Theresa May had an 'insurmountable' lead - she was at 44% in the polls and far from thinking a General Election a disaster the Brexiters were clamouring for an early election and a decisive victory. They made the same mistake you're making.

Much as I hate to praise him Gideon is the one who got it right. He left the SNP to defeat Labour in Scotland and focused on a strategy that divided Lib Dem support between the Tories and Labour in the South West wiping out the Lib Dems in the process - that strategy wouldn't work today because the Lib Dems would take Tory seats


Conservatives do appear to have the momentum at the moment. And if the GE is held after Oct 31st as seems most likely, the Brexit party’s job will be complete and they will probably swing behind the Conservatives adding even more votes.


That assumes No-Deal.

Which is still very unlikely imho - too many desperate to stop it and only the likes of the ERG rabid right in favour.

The deal Bojo appears to be angling for cannot possibly deviate much from May's deal and even he must realise that no-deal will kill Tory electoral prospects for a long time. If only 10% of the doom and gloom forecasts come true, people will die as a result, and economic prospects are quite dire. If half come true you are looking at unrest as well as major shortages. Let's just hope it's no worse.

So if we leave (big IF) with a cobbled together deal, Fromage and the ERG will have a dicky fit and any Tory government will be very short lived. Their vote at a general election will be badly split, and we may well see defections, Tory to BxP.

Either way, the Tories own the poison Brexit Chalice - and as far as I am concerned they can keep it until it is sorted.
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