Lambert wrote:
Constituencies > total votes. If he campaigns on a Remain platform I would be amazed.
How many of those constituencies would flip to Tory though? I cant see it happening in places like Barnsley where the phrase "you're a Tory" is still one of the most vile things you could say to someone.
On the other hand how many constituencies do these lose on a hard brexit ticket? some of the marginals could be lost via a swing to the libs letting in the tories.
And dont forget that the large membership increase is mostly younger people who would lean more to remain, or at least want the softest brexit possible. For Labour, who dont have the business/media funding and support of the Tories, those boots on the ground are vital to fight the election.
The question is more: hard brexit or soft brexit (and at what point would that become indistinguishable from remain?)