Opinion: The lasting effects of a No Deal Brexit

[Cactus Jack]

Accepting - for the sake of argument - that Boris will be successful and push through a No Deal Brexit on 31 October there will be some long term effects, and not just economically. Indeed for the purpose of this let's leave aside the economics and talk purely in terms of the cultural and political changes.

1 - The end of the UK.

The inarguable facts are that both Scotland and Northern Ireland voted to remain whilst England and Wales voted leave.

Even if the UK had negotiated staying in the Customs Union or the Single Market that would have been a problem to seeing the Little Englanders have so completely hijacked the agenda and forced through a No Deal Brexit the only conclusion left for the Scots and the Irish is that there is no place for them in the UK.

In the case of Northern Ireland a No Deal exit breaks the terms of the Good Friday agreement and as surely as night follows day terrorist attacks in London will happen within two years of a No Deal exit. Without the infrastructure offered by the EU single market as a framework the Good Friday agreement cannot be revived and another few decades of strife seems inevitable. The only viable outcome will be a United Ireland with those few disgruntled Unionists being invited to live in the United Kingdom they avow such affection for and probably being denied entry.

In the case of Scotland it will probably be a lot more peaceful. Scotland has been held up as the 'demon' by three successive Tory Prime Ministers now and that shit isn't going to go away when Indy II lands. I expect a result around 80% in favour of Scottish Independence as soon as the efforts to keep kicking that can down the road eventually run out - I doubt it will come to a terrorist attacks from that quarter but I don't rule it out.

2 - The end of the Royal Family.

Through no fault of their own - the Queen never turns down a request from the Prime Minister to exercise a Royal Prerogative- the British Monarchy were condemned to abolition this week.

Personally I don't see that as a bad thing. Ironically, many years ago in a debate on whether Britain should have a constitution, I foresaw a situation where a Prime Minister could use Prerogative powers to completely bypass Parliament and was told - categorically - by an MP that could never happen. That MP was Boris Johnson. We've already seen on prerogative power legislated away in most of our lifetime, the Fixed Term Parliament Act took away the power of the PM to dissolve Parliament and call an election on a whim, and the rest will now follow.

When the dust settles and chaos of No Deal unfolds one man will be left with the blame but the mechanism by which he took that step on the road to tyranny will also be examined. As by that time the Brexitshitters will want to remove any chance of prerogative powers being used to rejoin the EU. The remaining Prerogative powers will be legislated away and without them there is simply no basis for having a Royal Family (but at least this will please the racist who have gone off the royals since Megan Markle became one)

3 - The End of the Commonwealth.

Without the Royal Family as a figurehead and with the notion that the UK is headed so firmly down the road of Isolationism and Xenophobia expect the Commonwealth to disintegrate in a very short time - less than twenty years.

[McAz]

What - no negatives?

[Cactus Jack]

What - no negatives?

I wasn't thinking of either positive or negative simply inevitable.

The way the hardest possible Brexit has been rammed everyone's throat will have consequences for those unwilling forced into the line of fire.

For example the end of the UKs membership of the EU means the end of privileged access to the EU for Commonwealth countries and they're not going to like that.

Canada's deal with the EU foreshadowed how easily the EU could gain the advantages of trade with the Commonwealth without the disadvantages of having the UK as a member and that will be duplicated for other countries the UK has shit on in its determination to head for tyranny and isolationism

[McAz]

But surely Brexit puts an end to brown immigration at least, and that's what most of them voted for...?

....no wait.

non-EU net migration was the highest since 2004; this follows a gradual increase in immigration of non-EU citizens over the past five years for both work and study (Office for Natiuonal Statisics)

[Guest]

But surely Brexit puts an end to brown immigration at least, and that's what most of them voted for...?

....no wait.

non-EU net migration was the highest since 2004; this follows a gradual increase in immigration of non-EU citizens over the past five years for both work and study (Office for Natiuonal Statisics)

I couldn’t give a hoot as long as they’re decent people.

[McAz]

But surely Brexit puts an end to brown immigration at least, and that's what most of them voted for...?

....no wait.

non-EU net migration was the highest since 2004; this follows a gradual increase in immigration of non-EU citizens over the past five years for both work and study (Office for Natiuonal Statisics)

I couldn’t give a hoot as long as they’re decent people.

Nor me - but I didn't vote to stop them coming here.

Brexit: People voted to leave EU because they feared immigration, major survey finds

Nearly three-quarters (73 per cent) of those who are worried about immigration voted Leave, compared with 36 per cent of those who did not identify this as a concern, the research found, showing the discrepancy in views about immigration between Remain and Leave voters.

https://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/home-news/brexit-latest-news-leave-eu-immigration-main-reason-european-union-survey-a7811651.html

[Cactus Jack]

But surely Brexit puts an end to brown immigration at least, and that's what most of them voted for...?

....no wait.

non-EU net migration was the highest since 2004; this follows a gradual increase in immigration of non-EU citizens over the past five years for both work and study (Office for Natiuonal Statisics)

One of the arguments that Brexshitters wouldn't listen to, but as you point out has been proven correct, is that ending freedom of movement in the EU will increase migration from non-EU countries.

The notion that migrants 'steal' jobs is, and has always been, an utter nonsense. You need only view the 'cottage industries' that grow up around festivals and sporting events to see the effects of an influx of people.

The concessions stands on Wembley Way aren't all there on days when there are no people there and producing 60,000 burgers for one man and his dog who probably brought a cheese sandwich with them anyway isn't going to do anything but bankrupt anyone stupid enough to try to open when there is no market to sell to.

However that gets into the economics which I didn't want to do. Brexshitters are convinced that closing Britain off from a market 1.5 times the size of the USA is a good thing

[McAz]

But surely Brexit puts an end to brown immigration at least, and that's what most of them voted for...?

....no wait.

non-EU net migration was the highest since 2004; this follows a gradual increase in immigration of non-EU citizens over the past five years for both work and study (Office for Natiuonal Statisics)

One of the arguments that Brexshitters wouldn't listen to, but as you point out has been proven correct, is that ending freedom of movement in the EU will increase migration from non-EU countries.

The notion that migrants 'steal' jobs is, and has always been, an utter nonsense. You need only view the 'cottage industries' that grow up around festivals and sporting events to see the effects of an influx of people.

The concessions stands on Wembley Way aren't all there on days when there are no people there and producing 60,000 burgers for one man and his dog who probably brought a cheese sandwich with them anyway isn't going to do anything but bankrupt anyone stupid enough to try to open when there is no market to sell to.

However that gets into the economics which I didn't want to do. Brexshitters are convinced that closing Britain off from a market 1.5 times the size of the USA is a good thing

And one which, unlike that of the USA, we have enjoyed unconditional access to.

[Red Okktober]

It looks like the countdown to full meltdown is under way.

Perhaps Stooo could include a few special effects to accompany the mood on here. Maybe clicking on the politics forum could trigger Mahler's Funeral March? Or some wailing banshees?

Some Dignitas ads, and links to the Samaritans might be appropriate as well.

[McAz]

It looks like the countdown to full meltdown is under way.

Perhaps Stooo could include a few special effects to accompany the mood on here. Maybe clicking on the politics forum could trigger Mahler's Funeral March? Or some wailing banshees?

Some Dignitas ads, and links to the Samaritans might be appropriate as well.

Why?

[Cactus Jack]

It looks like the countdown to full meltdown is under way.

Perhaps Stooo could include a few special effects to accompany the mood on here. Maybe clicking on the politics forum could trigger Mahler's Funeral March? Or some wailing banshees?

Some Dignitas ads, and links to the Samaritans might be appropriate as well.

Why should the Irish and the Scots being free of the English yoke be seen as a bad thing?

Ireland and Scotland can go on to thrive and leave the backward English in their isolationist bubble just as South Korea, Japan and China continue to thrive while North Korea cuts itself off.

[McAz]

A cause for celebration, I think.

[Cactus Jack]

A cause for celebration, I think.

The British fear since the 17th century has been that Ireland would be the trading crossroads between the Americas and Europe that the English needed to be in order to survive. Keeping either Ireland or Scotland from joining with Europe to make England irrelevant was always a focus of English politics but now they've turned that around. English politics is now specifically aimed at becoming as isolationist and irrelevant as possible

[McAz]

A cause for celebration, I think.

The British fear since the 17th century has been that Ireland would be the trading crossroads between the Americas and Europe that the English needed to be in order to survive. Keeping either Ireland or Scotland from joining with Europe to make England irrelevant was always a focus of English politics but now they've turned that around. English politics is now specifically aimed at becoming as isolationist and irrelevant as possible

The Scots are planning a 2nd ref as early as next year, and the omens are looking good. With a fair wind the EU may let them rejoin sooner rather than later and I will be in the delightful position of having my Scottish/EU citizenship back and an EU border just a few minutes up the road.

I'm trying hard not to count my chickens.

[Cactus Jack]

A cause for celebration, I think.

The British fear since the 17th century has been that Ireland would be the trading crossroads between the Americas and Europe that the English needed to be in order to survive. Keeping either Ireland or Scotland from joining with Europe to make England irrelevant was always a focus of English politics but now they've turned that around. English politics is now specifically aimed at becoming as isolationist and irrelevant as possible

The Scots are planning a 2nd ref as early as next year, and the omens are looking good. With a fair wind the EU may let them rejoin sooner rather than later and I will be in the delightful position of having my Scottish/EU citizenship back and an EU border just a few minutes up the road.

I'm trying hard not to count my chickens.

Yes - if the Irish border is a problem for the UK just think of the fun they'll have with the Scottish border when the EU puts up border posts to protect the integrity of the single market.

Of course without Scotland it won't be the UK anymore. It won't be Great Britain either as that's a geographic term referring to the largest Island in the British Isles and it can't be just England because it will include Wales too (at least temporarily) I guess we'll have to think of a new name.

Maybe that's why Boris is so set on leaving. In a year or so he'll suggest Borisland as the name for the shrunken and neutered country